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XRP is trading just below the $2.40 mark in the second half of October 2025, after making a rapid monthly loss of 24 % which gave the price an opportunity to consolidate in the support area between $2.30 and $2.35. Technical positioning and the direction of on-chain flows now point to a major quarter ahead: either bulls conquer $2.60 and unlock the way to $3.00, or the breakout that didn't succeed results in a “death-cross” scenario that can prolong the correction to $1.60.
Short-term Technical Setup
The four-hour chart shows an upward trend of the 50-period moving average, indicating short strength in the context of the given timeframe. However, the daily moving average of 50 is still descending and is above the price level in the market, acting as a dynamic resistance at $2.63. A continuous close above this point would reject the negative outlook and draw algorithmic buying from momentum strategies implemented on platforms like Bitcoin Champion. On the other hand, the loss of the $2.30 anchor with great volume would create a 30 % measured move down to $1.60 based on various quantitative models.
Flow-driven Catalysts
Institutional flows are becoming constructive. Ripple's recent $1 billion purchase of GTreasury, a treasury-management firm, is an indication of aggressive corporate adoption of XRP as an asset to hold in the balance sheet and also for settlement purposes. On-chain data indicate that whale addresses are accumulating around 90 million XRP over the last ten days, the same behavior which was observed before the last 40 % leg up in March. Moreover, derivatives desks are also observing a rise in call skew for December expiry strikes at $2.80 and $3.00, which indicates a 35 % likelihood of the latter being achieved before the end of the year.
Baseline Forecast
The integration of order-book depth, momentum of funding rate, and historical volatility regimes produces the following ripple xrp price prediction path:
- Q4 2025: range $2.40 – $2.90; median close $2.71
- 2026: resistance cluster $3.20 – $3.50; average annual price $3.00