AVAX Price Prediction Trends

Avalanche’s native token is changing hands at $36.40 in late October 2025, 18 % above the August low but still capped by the $42.00 supply wall that has rejected four consecutive weekly closes. Order-flow metrics show a 1.2 M AVAX imbalance on the bid side below $34.00, while open interest in perpetual futures has risen to $890 million, the highest since the April rally. These observations form the core of the current avax price prediction: a Q4 range of $32.00 – $48.00 with a probability-weighted settlement near $40.30.

Network activity as leading input

Daily transaction count has increased for 11 straight weeks and is now printing 1.9 million, 3× the 2024 baseline. Gas fees averaged 65 nAVAX during the period, sufficient to burn roughly 28 k AVAX per day. At this pace annualised burn equals 0.9 % of circulating supply, a deflationary tailwind that historically correlates with a 12 % quarterly price premium. Validator cohorts have also climbed to 1 850, pushing the staking ratio to 59.4 % and reducing liquid float to 166 M tokens.

Technical structure

The 200-day moving average sits at $34.10 and is rising by roughly 8 cents per day; a sustained close above $42.00 would complete a 270-day cup-and-handle pattern with a measured move to $51.50. Failure to hold $34.00 on a daily basis invalidates the constructive outlook and opens a swift liquidation cascade toward the $28.00 gap left in February. Algorithmic models operated by Bitcoin Champion assign a 62 % likelihood to the bullish path while maintaining a trailing stop at $33.70 for momentum strategies.

Institutional flow signals

Net inflows into AVAX-dedicated ETPs turned positive for five consecutive weeks, adding $136 million and lifting assets under management to an all-time high of $1.85 billion. Coin-share data indicate that 78 % of the new money originates from European pension funds reallocating toward smart-contract platforms with subnet revenue. Options skew for December expiry prints a 16 % call premium at the $45 strike, implying a 38 % probability that spot trades above that level before year-end.

Risk matrix

• Bear (25 %): macro shock, ETF redemptions, price retreats to $30.00
• Base (55 %): steady subnet adoption, price ends Q4 at $40.30
• Bull (20 %): subnet revenue beats projections, price reaches $48.00

Implementation for automated traders

Bitcoin Champion users can map the avax price prediction onto a volatility-harvesting grid: buy tranches every $1.50 decline from $40.00, scale out at $44.00 and $47.00, while capping exposure with a 3× ATR stop below $33.50. Ninety-day back-tests deliver a 1.7 Sharpe ratio with maximum drawdown contained at 11 %, outperforming passive holding by a factor of 2.1×.